Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

José Fernando Aceves-Quesada  Jesús Díaz-Salgado  Jorge López-Blanco 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):339-356

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.  相似文献   

Inversion of free oscillation data for an elliptical rotating earth in source moment tensor studies     

Jorge A. Mendiguren 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1980,118(2):1192-1208

It is shown, through numerical experiments, that the effect of ignoring ellipticity and rotation of the earth when inverting free oscillation data in moment tensor studies, is to introduce spurious spectral components in the solution. For numerical simulation of the data conditions of the 1970 deep Colombian event the spurious part has isotropic and deviatoric components, besides a distortion in the phase spectra which may lead to artificial precursive source in the solution. The magnitude of the artificial isotropic component is of the order of 10% of the real source moment tensor, depending on the data set used in the inversion. Measuring the excitation of each mode at each station using the technique of integrating over the spectral peaks does not cancel completely the effect of multiplet splitting, in particular that splitting due to rotation of the earth. The effect of lateral heterogeneities was simulated by introducing arbitrary splitting parameters which produced scattering in the eigenperiods compatible with those observed. For that splitting the inversion rendered additional isotropic components.We conclude that the observed implosive precursor the the 1970 Colombian event could have been artificially introduced by ignoring rotation, ellipticity and lateral heterogeneities of the earth.A procedure to invert free oscillation data for an elliptical rotating earth is proposed. It could be applied to a laterally inhomogeneous earth if the excitation for that model could be computed. Its application to real data for the deep Colombian event indicates that we will need to improve our knowledge on the effect of rotation, ellipticity, lateral heterogeneities and anelasticity on free oscillation and their excitation in order to solve accurately for the six components of the moment tensor independently.  相似文献   

Geodetic constraints on active tectonics of the Western Mediterranean: Implications for the kinematics and dynamics of the Nubia-Eurasia plate boundary zone     

Philippe Vernant  Abdelali Fadil  Taoufik Mourabit  Driss Ouazar  Achraf Koulali  Jose Martin Davila  Jorge Garate  Simon McClusky  Robert Reilinger 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(3-4):123-129

We present GPS observations in Morocco and adjacent areas of Spain from 15 continuous (CGPS) and 31 survey-mode (SGPS) sites extending from the stable part of the Nubian plate to central Spain. We determine a robust velocity field for the W Mediterranean that we use to constrain models for the Iberia-Nubia plate boundary. South of the High Atlas Mountain system, GPS motions are consistent with Nubia plate motions from prior geodetic studies. We constrain shortening in the Atlas system to <1.5 mm/yr, 95% confidence level. North of the Atlas Mountains, the GPS velocities indicate Nubia motion with respect to Eurasia, but also a component of motion normal to the direction of Nubia-Eurasia motion, consisting of southward translation of the Rif Mountains in N Morocco at rates exceeding 5 mm/yr. This southward motion appears to be directly related to Miocene opening of the Alboran Sea. The Betic Mountain system north of the Alboran Sea is characterized by WNW motion with respect to Eurasia at ～1–2 mm/yr, paralleling Nubia-Eurasia relative motion. In addition, sites located in the Betics north of the southerly moving Rif Mountains also indicate a component of southerly motion with respect to Eurasia. We interpret this as indicating that deformation associated with Nubia-Eurasia plate motion extends into the southern Betics, but also that the Betic system may be affected by the same processes that are causing southward motion of the Rif Mountains south of the Alboran Sea. Kinematic modeling indicates that plate boundary geometries that include a boundary through the Straits of Gibraltar are most compatible with the component of motion in the direction of relative plate motion, but that two additional blocks (Alboran-Rif block, Betic Mountain block), independent of both Nubia and Eurasia are needed to account for the motions of the Rif and Betic Mountains normal to the direction of relative plate motion. We speculate that the southward motions of the Alboran-Rif and Betic blocks may be related to mantle flow, possibly induced by southward rollback of the subducted Nubian plate beneath the Alboran Sea and Rif Mountains.  相似文献   

Simulations of star formation in a gaseous disc around Sgr A*– a failed active galactic nucleus     

Sergei Nayakshin  Jorge Cuadra †  Volker Springel 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,379(1):21-33

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Concurrent imaging of chlorophyll fluorescence,Chlorophyll a content and green fluorescent proteins‐like proteins of symbiotic cnidarians          下载免费PDF全文

Miguel Costa Leal  Bruno Jesus  João Ezequiel  Ricardo Calado  Rui Jorge Miranda Rocha  Paulo Cartaxana  João Serôdio 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(3):572-584

Research on photosynthetic cnidarians has been mainly focused on the symbiosis established between the cnidarian host and its dinoflagellates endosymbionts from genus Symbiodinium. Despite the potential of imaging techniques for assessing the spatial distribution of key parameters of cnidarian photobiology, such as photochemical activity, chlorophyll a content or green fluorescent proteins (GFPs), to our best knowledge, no study has ever attempted to simultaneous map these three features. In this study, we developed a modified imaging pulse amplitude fluorometer by applying excitation light of different wavelengths and selectively detecting short spectral bands through bandpass filters. The imaging system was used to sequentially excite and quantify chlorophyll variable fluorescence (maximum quantum yield of photosystem II, F_v/F_m), Chl a content (normalized difference vegetation index) and relative content of GFPs. The spatial distribution of these photophysiological parameters was mapped both horizontally, across the surface of the soft corals Sarcophyton cf. glaucum and Sinularia flexibilis and the zoanthid Protopalythoa sp., and vertically, throughout a vertical section of S. cf. glaucum. Results showed bleached areas within each individual coral colony and registered photophysiological changes with S. cf. glaucum tissue depth. Analysis of Protopalythoa sp. polyps’ expansion revealed differential surface patterns of NDVI and GFP concentration, and a negative relation between these latter parameters within each polyp. This novel non‐invasive approach allowed a high‐resolution characterization of the spatial relationship between these key parameters through the analysis of image information on a pixel‐by‐pixel basis, which has great potential for investigating the physiological state of symbiotic associations.  相似文献   

The chemical composition of solar-type stars in comparison with that of the Sun     

Bengt Gustafsson  Jorge Meléndez  Martin Asplund  David Yong 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2010,328(1-2):185-191

The question whether the solar chemical composition is typical for solar-type stars is analysed by comparing the Sun with different stellar samples, including a sample of stars with very similar parameters, solar twins. Although typical in terms of overall metallicity for stars of solar age and galactic orbit, the solar atmosphere is found to have abundances, as compared with solar twins, that indicate that its gas has once been affected by dust formation and dust separation. It is concluded that this may be related to the formation of the solar planetary system and its special properties.  相似文献   

Sulfur isotope variations from orebody to hand-specimen scale at the Mežica lead–zinc deposit, Slovenia: a predominantly biogenic pattern     

Uroš Herlec  Jorge E. Spangenberg  Jošt V. Lavrič 《Mineralium Deposita》2010,45(6):531-547

The Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) Pb–Zn ore district at Mežica is hosted by Middle to Upper Triassic platform carbonate rocks in the Northern Karavanke/Drau Range geotectonic units of the Eastern Alps, northeastern Slovenia. The mineralization at Mežica covers an area of 64 km² with more than 350 orebodies and numerous galena and sphalerite occurrences, which formed epigenetically, both conformable and discordant to bedding. While knowledge on the style of mineralization has grown considerably, the origin of discordant mineralization is still debated. Sulfur stable isotope analyses of 149 sulfide samples from the different types of orebodies provide new insights on the genesis of these mineralizations and their relationship. Over the whole mining district, sphalerite and galena have δ ³⁴ S values in the range of –24.7 to –1.5‰ VCDT (–13.5 ± 5.0‰) and –24.7 to –1.4‰ (–10.7 ± 5.9‰), respectively. These values are in the range of the main MVT deposits of the Drau Range. All sulfide δ ³⁴ S values are negative within a broad range, with δ ³⁴ S _pyrite <δ ³⁴ S _sphalerite <δ ³⁴ S _galena for both conformable and discordant orebodies, indicating isotopically heterogeneous H₂S in the ore-forming fluids and precipitation of the sulfides at thermodynamic disequilibrium. This clearly supports that the main sulfide sulfur originates from bacterially mediated reduction (BSR) of Middle to Upper Triassic seawater sulfate or evaporite sulfate. Thermochemical sulfate reduction (TSR) by organic compounds contributed a minor amount of ³⁴S-enriched H₂S to the ore fluid. The variations of δ ³⁴ S values of galena and coarse-grained sphalerite at orefield scale are generally larger than the differences observed in single hand specimens. The progressively more negative δ ³⁴ S values with time along the different sphalerite generations are consistent with mixing of different H₂S sources, with a decreasing contribution of H₂S from regional TSR, and an increase from a local H₂S reservoir produced by BSR (i.e., sedimentary biogenic pyrite, organo-sulfur compounds). Galena in discordant ore (–11.9 to –1.7‰; –7.0 ± 2.7‰, n = 12) tends to be depleted in ³⁴ S compared with conformable ore (–24.7 to –2.8‰, –11.7 ± 6.2‰, n = 39). A similar trend is observed from fine-crystalline sphalerite I to coarse open-space filling sphalerite II. Some variation of the sulfide δ ³⁴ S values is attributed to the inherent variability of bacterial sulfate reduction, including metabolic recycling in a locally partially closed system and contribution of H₂S from hydrolysis of biogenic pyrite and thermal cracking of organo-sulfur compounds. The results suggest that the conformable orebodies originated by mixing of hydrothermal saline metal-rich fluid with H₂S-rich pore waters during late burial diagenesis, while the discordant orebodies formed by mobilization of the earlier conformable mineralization.  相似文献   

Groundwater recharge in irrigated semi-arid areas: quantitative hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Joaquín Jiménez-Martínez  Lucila Candela  Jorge Molinero  Karim Tamoh 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(8):1811-1824

For semi-arid regions, methods of assessing aquifer recharge usually consider the potential evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration rates can be below potential rates for long periods of time, even in irrigated systems. Accurate estimations of aquifer recharge in semi-arid areas under irrigated agriculture are essential for sustainable water-resources management. A method to estimate aquifer recharge from irrigated farmland has been tested. The water-balance-modelling approach was based on VisualBALAN v. 2.0, a computer code that simulates water balance in the soil, vadose zone and aquifer. The study was carried out in the Campo de Cartagena (SE Spain) in the period 1999–2008 for three different groups of crops: annual row crops (lettuce and melon), perennial vegetables (artichoke) and fruit trees (citrus). Computed mean-annual-recharge values (from irrigation+precipitation) during the study period were 397 mm for annual row crops, 201 mm for perennial vegetables and 194 mm for fruit trees: 31.4, 20.7 and 20.5% of the total applied water, respectively. The effects of rainfall events on the final recharge were clearly observed, due to the continuously high water content in soil which facilitated the infiltration process. A sensitivity analysis to assess the reliability and uncertainty of recharge estimations was carried out.  相似文献   

Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

José Cepeda  José Alexander Chávez  Celina Cruz Martínez 《Landslides》2010,7(2):105-116

The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador.  相似文献   

Appraising stone column settlement prediction methods using finite element analyses   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Brian G. Sexton  Bryan A. McCabe  Jorge Castro 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(6):993-1011

Numerous approaches exist for the prediction of the settlement improvement offered by the vibro-replacement technique in weak or marginal soil deposits. The majority of the settlement prediction methods are based on the unit cell assumption, with a small number based on plane strain or homogenisation techniques. In this paper, a comprehensive review and assessment of the more popular settlement prediction methods is carried out with a view to establishing which method(s) is/are in best agreement with finite element predictions from a series of PLAXIS 2D axisymmetric analyses on an end-bearing column. The Hardening Soil Model in PLAXIS 2D has been used to model the behaviour of both the granular column material and the treated soft clay soil. This study has shown that purely elastic settlement prediction methods overestimate the settlement improvement for large modular ratios, while the methods based on elastic–plastic theory are in better agreement with finite element predictions at higher modular ratios. In addition, a parameter sensitivity study has been carried out to establish the influence of a range of different design parameters on predictions obtained using a selection of elastic–plastic methods.  相似文献